From Foreign Trade Sufplus to Controversial Exchange Rate: A Quantitative Analysis of RMB Appreciation

Since 2005, the United States has continuously accused China of its trade deficit, and some well-known foreign scholars have also accused China of manipulating the exchange rate, causing international public outcry. At the same time, many scholars at home and abroad oppose the appreciation of the RMB. The two sides of the argument held their own opinions and quarrelled with each other. The reason is largely due to the lack of quantitative research, and even the lack of scrutiny for many very important indicator data. Even some people are eager to express their opinions without even figuring out the basic definitions and connotations of some key data. China is in the stage of economic take-off, and it has characteristics that other countries do not have or are insignificant. Applying traditional trade theories will inevitably make the mistake of seeking swords. Obviously, if there is no quantitative research, it is difficult to provide a platform for both parties to sit down and exchange opinions seriously, and it is inevitable that there will be a tendency to go to extremes in the debate. in conclusion. Quantitative is a compromise, and only a compromise can find a win-win solution in international trade. In this context, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the foreign trade surplus and foreign exchange debate.